Your odds, by sport
High-school participants in 2024-25 divided by NCAA roster spots last season. Both span four classes, so the ratio is a fair "how many of us make it".
| Sport | High-school players | NCAA roster spots | Any NCAA | Division I | Division II | Division III |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women's Ice Hockey | 9,589 | 3,019 | 31% 1 in 3 | 10% 1 in 10 | 1.3% 1 in 75 | 20% 1 in 5 |
| Women's Beach Volleyball | 11,514 | 1,817 | 16% 1 in 6 | 11% 1 in 9 | 3.6% 1 in 27 | 1.2% 1 in 83 |
| Men's Lacrosse | 113,696 | 15,972 | 14% 1 in 7 | 3.4% 1 in 30 | 3.1% 1 in 32 | 7.6% 1 in 13 |
| Women's Lacrosse | 99,292 | 13,352 | 13% 1 in 7 | 4.4% 1 in 23 | 3.1% 1 in 33 | 5.9% 1 in 17 |
| Men's Ice Hockey | 32,253 | 4,329 | 13% 1 in 7 | 5.1% 1 in 20 | 0.64% 1 in 160 | 7.7% 1 in 13 |
| Women's Track & Field | 513,808 | 66,586 | 13% 1 in 8 | 6.4% 1 in 16 | 3.2% 1 in 31 | 3.3% 1 in 30 |
| Field Hockey | 50,764 | 6,399 | 13% 1 in 8 | 4.0% 1 in 25 | 1.8% 1 in 57 | 6.8% 1 in 15 |
| Women's Gymnastics | 14,996 | 1,722 | 11% 1 in 9 | 8.1% 1 in 12 | 0.71% 1 in 140 | 2.7% 1 in 37 |
| Men's Track & Field | 644,235 | 65,780 | 10% 1 in 10 | 4.2% 1 in 24 | 2.9% 1 in 35 | 3.2% 1 in 32 |
| Women's Swimming & Diving | 138,303 | 12,659 | 9.2% 1 in 11 | 4.2% 1 in 24 | 1.5% 1 in 65 | 3.4% 1 in 29 |
| Baseball | 472,598 | 40,518 | 8.6% 1 in 12 | 2.6% 1 in 39 | 2.5% 1 in 39 | 3.5% 1 in 29 |
| Men's Swimming & Diving | 119,102 | 9,715 | 8.2% 1 in 12 | 3.2% 1 in 31 | 1.4% 1 in 70 | 3.5% 1 in 28 |
| Women's Soccer | 393,048 | 30,789 | 7.8% 1 in 13 | 2.8% 1 in 36 | 2.2% 1 in 46 | 2.9% 1 in 34 |
| Football | 1,029,588 | 78,099 | 7.6% 1 in 13 | 3.0% 1 in 33 | 2.0% 1 in 50 | 2.5% 1 in 39 |
| Women's Water Polo | 18,023 | 1,312 | 7.3% 1 in 14 | 4.5% 1 in 22 | 0.90% 1 in 110 | 1.9% 1 in 53 |
| Women's Golf | 85,385 | 5,751 | 6.7% 1 in 15 | 2.7% 1 in 37 | 1.8% 1 in 54 | 2.2% 1 in 45 |
| Softball | 338,315 | 21,824 | 6.5% 1 in 16 | 2.1% 1 in 48 | 1.9% 1 in 52 | 2.5% 1 in 41 |
| Men's Soccer | 484,908 | 27,930 | 5.8% 1 in 17 | 1.4% 1 in 72 | 1.6% 1 in 63 | 2.8% 1 in 36 |
| Men's Water Polo | 21,756 | 1,176 | 5.4% 1 in 19 | 3.1% 1 in 32 | 0.71% 1 in 140 | 1.6% 1 in 63 |
| Men's Golf | 162,357 | 8,640 | 5.3% 1 in 19 | 1.8% 1 in 56 | 1.4% 1 in 71 | 2.1% 1 in 47 |
| Women's Basketball | 356,240 | 17,821 | 5.0% 1 in 20 | 1.7% 1 in 58 | 1.4% 1 in 71 | 1.9% 1 in 53 |
| Men's Tennis | 158,667 | 7,058 | 4.4% 1 in 22 | 1.4% 1 in 70 | 0.90% 1 in 110 | 2.1% 1 in 47 |
| Women's Volleyball | 492,799 | 19,314 | 3.9% 1 in 26 | 1.3% 1 in 78 | 1.1% 1 in 88 | 1.5% 1 in 66 |
| Women's Tennis | 204,721 | 7,686 | 3.8% 1 in 27 | 1.3% 1 in 76 | 0.84% 1 in 120 | 1.6% 1 in 63 |
| Men's Basketball | 540,704 | 19,636 | 3.6% 1 in 28 | 1.1% 1 in 93 | 1.0% 1 in 96 | 1.5% 1 in 66 |
| Men's Volleyball | 95,972 | 3,395 | 3.5% 1 in 28 | 0.58% 1 in 170 | 0.74% 1 in 130 | 2.2% 1 in 45 |
| Men's Wrestling | 300,214 | 8,735 | 2.9% 1 in 34 | 0.88% 1 in 110 | 0.81% 1 in 120 | 1.2% 1 in 82 |
| Women's Cross Country | 191,733 | 4,568 | 2.4% 1 in 42 | 0.34% 1 in 290 | 0.60% 1 in 170 | 1.4% 1 in 69 |
| Women's Wrestling | 74,064 | 1,715 | 2.3% 1 in 43 | 0.15% 1 in 650 | 1.0% 1 in 97 | 1.1% 1 in 88 |
| Men's Cross Country | 241,565 | 5,297 | 2.2% 1 in 46 | 0.35% 1 in 280 | 0.53% 1 in 190 | 1.3% 1 in 76 |
| Men's Rowing | — | 2,438 | — | — | — | — |
| Women's Rowing | — | 6,521 | — | — | — | — |
- Sorted from the best odds to the longest. Only sports live on the site are listed; rowing is not in the high-school survey.
- The survey counts school teams only. Sports played largely through clubs — ice hockey, gymnastics, beach volleyball, water polo — are undercounted at the high-school end, so their shares read high.
- Roster spots and high-school players both span four classes, so the ratio is a fair "how many of us make it" — the same method the NCAA uses for its own "probability of competing beyond high school" figures.
- Division I rosters shrink to the 2025-26 caps from this season, which lowers the Division I share in capped sports; each sport's guide shows the cap-adjusted line.
- Transfers (junior college, portal) and international players hold a share of every roster, so the odds for a high-school senior specifically are somewhat lower. NAIA and junior-college rosters are not counted, so the odds of playing somewhere are better.